D84 - Expectations; Speculations

• Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations

  Staff Working Paper 2023-63 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen

  We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C9, C93, D, D8, D84, E, E5, E59, E7

• Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-11 Naveen Rai, Patrick Sabourin

  Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31

• Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media

  Staff Working Paper 2023-23 Alistair Macaulay, Wenting Song

  News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E32, E4, E43, E44, E5, G, G1

• What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin

  We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31