D - Microeconomics

• Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data

  Staff Working Paper 2024-20 Patrick Alexander, Lu Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Ben Tomlin

  We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L13, L8, L81

• Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-12 Dany Brouillette, Tessa Devakos, Raven Wheesk

  We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Climate change, Digitalization, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, J, J1, J11, O, O3, O33, Q, Q5, Q54

• Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-4 Calista Cheung, James Fudurich, Janki Shah, Farrukh Suvankulov

  What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D0, G, G3, G38, J, J1, J15

• Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm

  Staff Working Paper 2024-17 Sofia Priazhkina, Samuel Palmer, Pablo Martín-Ramiro, Román Orús, Samuel Mugel, Vladimir Skavysh

  We build a network formation game of firms with trade flows to study the adoption and usage of a new digital currency as an alternative to correspondent banking.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Digitalization, Economic models, Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C6, C7, C71, D, D4, D8, D85, G, L, L2, L22

• Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples

  Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, C5, C55, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42