D - Microeconomics

• We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress

  Staff Working Paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée

  We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54

• Firms’ inflation expectations and price-setting behaviour in Canada: Evidence from a business survey

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-3 Ramisha Asghar, James Fudurich, Jane Voll

  Canadian firms’ expectations for high inflation may be influencing their price setting, supporting strong price growth and delays in the transmission of monetary policy. Using data from the Business Outlook Survey, we investigate the reasons behind widespread price growth seen in Canada in 2021 and early 2022.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31

• The Role of Intermediaries in Selection Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending

  Staff Working Paper 2023-12 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde, Shaoteng Li, Anna Trubnikova

  This paper looks at the role mortgage brokers play in helping borrowers generate quotes and qualify for credit. We find that, on average, borrowers that engage with a mortgage broker pay lower interest rates. However, in about 15% of cases, borrowers are steered towards longer amortizing mortgages than they would have chosen absent a broker. Since mortgages with longer amortization have higher total interest costs over the entire life of the mortgage, this steering is expensive.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L2

• Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory

  Staff Working Paper 2023-11 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang

  We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40