C5 - Econometric Modeling

• Inflation Changes, Yield Spreads, and Threshold Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2002-40 Greg Tkacz

  Using interest rate yield spreads to explain changes in inflation, we investigate whether such relationships can be modelled using two-regime threshold models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E31

• Oil-Price Shocks and Retail Energy Prices in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2002-38 Marwan Chacra

  The effects of global energy-price shocks on retail energy prices in Canada are examined. More specifically, the author looks at the response of the consumer price indexes for gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and electricity in Canada to movements in world crude oil prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C51, C53, Q, Q4, Q40

• Evaluating the Quarterly Projection Model: A Preliminary Investigation

  Staff Working Paper 2002-20 Robert Amano, Kim McPhail, Hope Pioro, Andrew Rennison

  This paper summarizes the results of recent research evaluating the Bank of Canada's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17, E3, E30, E37

• Towards a More Complete Debt Strategy Simulation Framework

  Staff Working Paper 2002-13 David Bolder

  An effective technique governments use to evaluate the desirability of different financing strategies involves stochastic simulation. This approach requires the postulation of the future dynamics of key macroeconomic variables and the use of those variables in the construction of a debt charge distribution for each individual financing strategy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C5, G, G0

• Asset Allocation Using Extreme Value Theory

  Staff Working Paper 2002-2 Younes Bensalah

  This paper examines asset allocation strategies in an extreme value at risk (VaR) framework in which the risk measure is the p-quantile from the extreme value distribution. The main focus is on the allocation problem faced by an extremely risk-averse institution, such as a central bank.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C0, C4, C5, G, G1