C5 - Econometric Modeling

• Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM

  Staff Working Paper 1997-16 Richard Black, David Rose

  This paper documents the structure and properties of the Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM). CPAM is designed to provide a reasonably complete representation of the Canadian macro economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17

• Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 1997-14 Robert Amano, Tiff Macklem

  The menu-cost models of price adjustment developed by Ball and Mankiw (1994;1995) predict that short-run movements in inflation should be positively related to the skewness and the variance of the distribution of disaggregated relative-price shocks in each period. We test these predictions on Canadian data using the distribution of changes in disaggregated producer prices to measure the skewness and standard deviation of relative-price shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31

• What Does Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity Imply for Monetary Policy?

  Staff Working Paper 1997-13 Seamus Hogan

  A recent paper has suggested there might be a trade-off between inflation and unemployment at low inflation rates and this has led some economists to recommend that Canada increase its inflation rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E2, E24, E5, E50

• A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap

  Staff Working Paper 1997-5 Chantal Dupasquier, Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant

  In this paper, the authors survey some of the recent techniques proposed in the literature to measure the trend component of output or potential output. Given the reported shortcomings of mechanical filters and univariate approaches to estimate potential output, the paper focusses on three simple multivariate methodologies: the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson methodology (MBN), Cochrane's methodology (CO), and the structural VAR methodology with long-run restrictions applied to output (LRRO).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E5, E52

• La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses

  Staff Working Paper 1997-3 Jean-François Fillion, André Léonard

  This study, which draws on a variety of research on price dynamics in Canada, examines some hypotheses that might explain the poor quality of recent inflation forecasts based on the conventional Phillips curve.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31