C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

• Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures

  Staff Working Paper 2024-19 Grzegorz Halaj, Ruben Hipp

  We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14

• Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-4 Calista Cheung, James Fudurich, Janki Shah, Farrukh Suvankulov

  What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D0, G, G3, G38, J, J1, J15

• Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm

  Staff Working Paper 2024-17 Sofia Priazhkina, Samuel Palmer, Pablo Martín-Ramiro, Román Orús, Samuel Mugel, Vladimir Skavysh

  We build a network formation game of firms with trade flows to study the adoption and usage of a new digital currency as an alternative to correspondent banking.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Digitalization, Economic models, Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C6, C7, C71, D, D4, D8, D85, G, L, L2, L22

• Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples

  Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, C5, C55, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42

• Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals

  Staff Working Paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang

  We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7

• Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation

  Staff Working Paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault

  I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E10