C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

• Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations

  Staff Working Paper 2023-63 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen

  We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C9, C93, D, D8, D84, E, E5, E59, E7

• Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function

  Staff Working Paper 2023-61 Tony Chernis, Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Gary Koop, James Mitchell

  This paper studies non-parametric combinations of density forecasts. We introduce a regression tree-based approach that allows combination weights to vary on the features of the densities, time-trends or economic indicators. In two empirical applications, we show the benefits of this approach in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, C5, C53

• Climate-Related Flood Risk to Residential Lending Portfolios in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-33 Craig Johnston, Geneviève Vallée, Hossein Hosseini, Brett Lindsay, Miguel Molico, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts

  We assess the potential financial risks of current and projected flooding caused by extreme weather events in Canada. We focus on the residential real estate secured lending (RESL) portfolios of Canadian financial institutions (FIs) because RESL portfolios are an important component of FIs’ balance sheets and because the assets used to secure such loans are immobile and susceptible to climate-related extreme weather events.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54

• Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-32 Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts

  Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54

• Finding the balance—measuring risks to inflation and to GDP growth

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-18 Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong

  Using our new quantitative tool, we show how the risks to the inflation and growth outlooks have evolved over the course of 2023.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C58, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G17

• Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki

  Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52