Staff working papers

• How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers

  Staff Working Paper 2020-18 Katya Kartashova, Xiaoqing Zhou

  We study the causal effect of mortgage rate changes on consumer spending, debt repayment and defaults during an expansionary and a contractionary monetary policy episode in Canada. We find asymmetric responses of consumer durable spending, deleveraging and defaults. These findings help us to understand household sector response to interest rate changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, R, R3, R31

• Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation

  Staff Working Paper 2020-17 Xing Guo

  This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, G, G3, G31, G32

• Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions

  Staff Working Paper 2020-16 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Luis Uzeda

  We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52