Staff working papers

• U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields

  Staff Working Paper 2024-12 Bingxin Ann Xing, Bruno Feunou, Morvan Nongni-Donfack, Rodrigo Sekkel

  Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G14

• Unintended Consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program

  Staff Working Paper 2024-11 Phoebe Tian, Chen Zheng

  We investigate the unintended consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). Originally designed to help borrowers refinance after the 2008–09 global financial crisis, HARP inadvertently strengthened the market power of incumbent lenders by creating a cost advantage for them. Despite a 2013 policy rectifying this cost advantage, we still find significant welfare losses for borrowers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G5, G51, L, L5, L51