Staff research

• July 31, 2019

  Research Update - July 2019

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• An Application of Shapley Value Cost Allocation to Liquidity Savings Mechanisms

  Staff Working Paper 2019-26 Rodney J. Garratt

  Liquidity demands in real-time gross settlement payment systems can be enormous. To reduce the liquidity requirement, central banks around the world have implemented liquidity savings mechanisms (LSMs).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58

• Explaining Unusual Cash Patterns in 2018

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-22 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Jozsef Molnar, Gradon Nicholls

  There was an unusually large decline of bank notes in circulation in October 2018. Some have argued that this was due to the legalization of cannabis in Canada in mid-October.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58

• Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches

  Staff Working Paper 2019-25 Jonathan Swarbrick

  We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability, Interest rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01

• Privacy as a Public Good: A Case for Electronic Cash

  Staff Working Paper 2019-24 Rodney J. Garratt, Maarten van Oordt

  Cash gives users a high level of privacy when making payments, but the use of cash to make payments is declining. People increasingly use debit cards, credit cards or other methods to pay.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28

• How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais

  We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43

• The Effects of Inflation Targeting for Financial Development

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-21 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Amy (Qijia) Li

  The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by central banks leads to an increase of 10 to 20 percent in measures of financial development, with a lag. We also find evidence that the financial sector benefits of IT adoption were higher for early-adopting central banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Inflation targets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E58

• Canadian Securities Lending Market Ecology

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-5 Jesse Johal, Joanna Roberts, John Sim

  This is the fourth of the Financial Markets Department’s descriptions of Canadian financial industrial organization. The paper discusses the organization of the securities lending market in Canada. We outline key characteristics of securities lending contracts, participants in the securities lending market, the market infrastructures that support securities lending activities, and aggregated statistics describing the Canadian market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23

• The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau

  This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68