Staff research, Publications
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A Structural VAR Approach to Core Inflation in Canada
The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This "macro-founded" measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures. -
The Implementation of Monetary Policy in Canada
The authors present a detailed discussion of the Bank of Canada's framework for the implementation of monetary policy. As background, they provide a brief overview of the financial system in Canada, including a discussion of the financial services industry and the money market. -
On the Amplification Role of Collateral Constraints
Following the seminal contribution of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), the role of collateral constraints for business cycle fluctuations has been highlighted by several authors and collateralized debt is becoming a popular feature of business cycle models. -
July 17, 2008
Monetary Policy Report Update – July 2008
Three major developments are affecting the Canadian economy: the protracted weakness in the U.S. economy; ongoing turbulence in global financial markets; and sharp increases in the prices of certain commodities — particularly energy. The first two developments are evolving roughly in line with expectations outlined in the April Monetary Policy Report. -
Information Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery - Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market
We examine large price changes, known as jumps, in the U.S. Treasury market. Using recently developed statistical tools, we identify price jumps in the 2-, 3-, 5-, 10-year notes and 30-year bond during the period of 2005-2006. -
July 7, 2008
Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2008
Despite the recent slowdown in real economic growth in Canada, the results of the summer survey do not suggest widespread weakness across Canadian firms. Firms have, however, become increasingly concerned about pressures on input costs and inflation. -
The Cost of Equity in Canada: An International Comparison
This paper calculates an implied cost of equity for 19 developed countries from 1991 to 2006. During this period, there has been a decline in the cost of equity of about 10-15 bps per year, which can be partially attributed to declining government yields and declining inflation.