April 30, 2020
Staff research, Publications
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A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices
A put option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specific price by (or at) a specific date. A put option can therefore provide its holder insurance against a large drop in the stock price. This makes the prices of put options an ideal source of information for a market-based measure of the probability of a firm’s default. -
Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields
This equilibrium model explains the trend in long-term yields and business-cycle movements in short-term yields and yield spreads. The less-frequent inverted yield curves (and less-frequent recessions) after the 1990s are due to recent secular stagnation and procyclical inflation expectations. -
Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI). -
Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers in Israel
Standard theories of price adjustment are based on the problem of a single-product firm, and therefore they may not be well suited to analyze price dynamics in the economy with multiproduct firms. -
April 15, 2020
Monetary Policy Report – April 2020
Canada’s economy faces two significant shocks—the plunge in global oil prices and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. -
April 6, 2020
Business Outlook Survey—Spring 2020
Results from the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment had softened in most regions even before concerns around COVID‑19 intensified in Canada. Confidence deteriorated the most among firms in energy-producing regions. -
April 6, 2020
Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2020
The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) focuses on respondents’ views on inflation, the labour market and household finances. The survey for the first quarter of 2020 was conducted between January 29 and February 19, 2020. Results were therefore obtained before COVID‑19 became a major concern for Canadians and affected their outlook. This is the second quarterly publication of the results of the CSCE. Data collection began in the fourth quarter of 2014. -
Optimal Taxation in Asset Markets with Adverse Selection
What is the optimal tax schedule in over-the-counter markets, e.g., those for corporate bonds? I find that an optimal tax schedule is often non-monotonic. For example, trading of some high-price assets should be subsidized, and trading of some low-price assets should be taxed.