Staff discussion papers

• Why Do Canadian Firms Invest and Operate Abroad? Implications for Canadian Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-7 Martin Coiteux, Patrick Rizzetto, Lena Suchanek, Jane Voll

  Canadian foreign direct investment and sales of Canadian multinational firms’ operations abroad, particularly in the manufacturing industry and in the United States, have accelerated sharply over the past decade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F2, F21, F23, F4, F41

• Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-6 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, E, E3, E37, E5, E6, E61

• The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-5 Rhys R. Mendes

  A measure of the neutral policy interest rate can be used to gauge the stance of monetary policy. We define the neutral rate as the real policy rate consistent with output at its potential level and inflation equal to target after the effects of all cyclical shocks have dissipated.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58

• Removal of the Unwinding Provisions in the Automated Clearing Settlement System: A Risk Assessment

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-4 Nicholas Labelle, Varya Taylor

  A default in the Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS) occurs when a Direct Clearer is unable to settle its final obligation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G0, G01, G2, G3

• Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-3 Maxime Leboeuf, Louis Morel

  In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Electronic Money and Payments: Recent Developments and Issues

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-2 Ben Fung, Miguel Molico, Gerald Stuber

  The authors review recent developments in retail payments in Canada and elsewhere, with a focus on e-money products, and assess their potential public policy implications.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42

• Canadian Non-Energy Exports: Past Performance and Future Prospects

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-1 André Binette, Daniel de Munnik, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant

  Canada has continued to lose market share in the United States since the Great Recession, beyond what our bilateral competitiveness measures (relative unit labour costs) would suggest.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43