Staff discussion papers

• The Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in Bank Capital and Liquidity Requirements in Canada: Insights from the BoC-GEM-FIN

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-16 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, Nikita Perevalov

  The authors use simulations within the BoC-GEM-FIN, the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model with financial frictions in both the demand and supply sides of the credit market, to investigate the macroeconomic implications of changing bank regulations on the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, G, G1, G2

• Has the Inclusion of Forward-Looking Statements in Monetary Policy Communications Made the Bank of Canada More Transparent?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-15 Christine Fay, Toni Gravelle

  To investigate the extent to which the transparency of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy has improved, the authors examine empirically – over the period 30 October 2000 to 31 May 2007 – the reaction of Canadian financial markets to official Bank communications, and in particular their reaction to the recent inclusion of forward-looking policy-rate guidance in these communications.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

• Losses from Simulated Defaults in Canada's Large Value Transfer System

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-14 Nellie Zhang, Tom Hossfeld

  The Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) loss-sharing mechanism was designed to ensure that, in the event of a one-participant default, the collateral pledged by direct members of the system would be sufficient to cover the largest possible net debit position of a defaulting participant. However, the situation may not hold if the indirect effects of the defaults are taken into consideration, or if two participants default during the same payment cycle.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, G, G2, G21

• Liquidity, Risk, and Return: Specifying an Objective Function for the Management of Foreign Reserves

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-13 Yuliya Romanyuk

  An objective function is a key component of a strategic portfolio management model used to determine the optimal allocations of assets and, possibly, their associated liabilities over some investment horizon.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11

• Nowcasting the Global Economy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-12 James Rossiter

  Forecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47

• Evaluating the Effect of the Bank of Canada's Conditional Commitment Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-11 Zhongfang He

  The author evaluates the effect of the Bank of Canada's conditional commitment regarding the target overnight rate on longer-term market interest rates by taking into account the relationship between interest rates, inflation, and unemployment rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, E6

• Asset-Liability Management: An Overview

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-10 Yuliya Romanyuk

  Relevant literature on asset-liability management (ALM) is reviewed and different ALM approaches are discussed that may be of interest to the Bank of Canada for the purpose of modelling the Exchange Fund Account (EFA).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11

• Inventories in ToTEM

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Yang Zhang

  ToTEM – the Bank of Canada’s principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy – is extended to include inventories. In the model, firms accumulate inventories of finished goods for their role in facilitating the demand for goods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

• Inventories, Stockouts, and ToTEM

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-8 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Yang Zhang

  Inventory investment is an important component of the Canadian business cycle. Despite its small average size – less than 1 per cent of output – it exhibits volatile procyclical fluctuations, accounting for almost one-third of output variance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

• Statistical Confidence Intervals for the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-7 Daniel de Munnik

  While a number of central banks publish their own business conditions indicators that rely on non-random sampling, knowledge about their statistical accuracy has been limited.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C4, C46, C8, C81