FSRC - Financial System Research Center
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Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated?
This note presents measures of liquidity used by the Bank of Canada to monitor market conditions and discusses recent trends in Government of Canada (GoC) fixed-income market liquidity. Our results indicate that the Bank’s measures have improved since the financial crisis. Furthermore, GoC market liquidity deteriorated following several stressful events: the euro crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013 and the oil price shock in 2015. In all three cases, the deterioration remained within historical norms and liquidity returned to normal levels afterwards.
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How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state. -
Retrieving Implied Financial Networks from Bank Balance-Sheet and Market Data
In complex and interconnected banking systems, counterparty risk does not depend only on the risk of the immediate counterparty but also on the risk of others in the network of exposures. -
Information Contagion and Systemic Risk
We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-ante level of systemic risk defined as the probability of joint bank default. -
Fintech: Is This Time Different? A Framework for Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Central Banks
We investigate the risks and opportunities to the mandates of central banks arising from fintech developments. -
Adoption of a New Payment Method: Theory and Experimental Evidence
We model the introduction of a new payment method, e.g., e-money, that competes with an existing payment method, e.g., cash. The new payment method involves relatively lower per-transaction costs for both buyers and sellers, but sellers must pay a fixed fee to accept the new payment method. -
Quantitative Easing and Long‐Term Yields in Small Open Economies
We compare the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs with those implemented by the Bank of England and the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank’s reserve expansion program. -
Monetary Policy Implementation in a Negative Rate Environment
Monetary policy implementation could, in theory, be constrained by deeply negative rates since overnight market participants may have an incentive to invest in cash rather than lend to other participants. -
What Explains Month-End Funding Pressure in Canada?
The Canadian overnight repo market persistently shows signs of latent funding pressure around month-end periods. Both the overnight repo rate and Bank of Canada liquidity provision tend to rise in these windows. This paper proposes three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain this phenomenon.