Monetary policy and uncertainty
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October 12, 2015
Integrating Financial Stability into Monetary Policy
Governor Poloz speaks about the Bank’s research agenda and how it supports efforts to integrate financial stability concerns into monetary policy. -
September 21, 2015
Riding the Commodity Cycle: Resources and the Canadian Economy
Governor Poloz speaks about cycles in commodity prices and how Canada has used its endowment of natural resources to build a prosperous economy. -
May 19, 2015
The Way Home: Reading the Economic Signs
Governor Poloz discusses some key indicators the Bank is watching as the Canadian economy heads toward sustainable balanced growth. -
November 13, 2014
Firm Strategy, Competitiveness and Productivity: The Case for Canada
At a time when the Bank is expecting a rotation of demand toward exports and investment, and transformative global trends are placing increasing emphasis on innovation, technology and organizational learning, an understanding of the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms and the factors affecting them has become particularly relevant. This article summarizes findings from a Bank of Canada survey of 151 firms designed to extract signals on elements of firm strategy and organizational capital in order to help inform the macroeconomic outlook. -
Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective
This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making. -
May 13, 2014
Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Realized and Implied Volatility
Uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s future policy rates is measured using implied volatility computed from interest rate options and realized volatility computed from intraday prices of interest rate futures. Both volatility measures show that uncertainty decreased following major policy actions taken by the Bank in response to the 2007–09 financial crisis. Findings also indicate that, on average, uncertainty decreases following the Bank’s policy rate announcements. -
Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Implied Volatility and Realized Volatility
We measure uncertainty surrounding the central bank’s future policy rates using implied volatility computed from interest rate option prices and realized volatility computed from intraday prices of interest rate futures. -
Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations
The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition - either tax- or spending-based - are uncertain. -
Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity
This paper examines empirically the impact of financial stress on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Canada. The model used is a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if financial stress conditions cross a critical threshold.