Recent economic and financial developments

• January 20, 2016

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments

• Extending the Labour Market Indicator to the Canadian Provinces

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-2 Alexander Fritsche, Katherine Ragan

  Calculating the labour market indicator (LMI) at the provincial level provides useful insights into Canada’s regional economies and reveals differing trends in the state of underlying labour market conditions across provinces. Conclusions based on the Canadian LMI do not necessarily translate to the provinces. In most cases, the correlations between the provincial LMIs and the underlying labour market variables have the expected sign.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E27, J, J2, J21, J23

• The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz

  In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00
• December 15, 2015

  Indebted Households and Potential Vulnerabilities for the Canadian Financial System: A Microdata Analysis

  Financial System Review - December 2015 Gino Cateau, Tom Roberts, Jie Zhou

  Over the past decade, an increasing proportion of households in Canada have become highly indebted relative to their income. These highly indebted households now hold one-fifth of total Canadian household debt.Simulations suggest that this greater degree of household indebtedness could exacerbate the impact of shocks to income and interest rates relative to the pre-crisis period. However, an assessment of the vulnerability of the Canadian financial system should, among other factors, account for the ability of Canadian financial institutions to withstand losses from the household sector.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E5, E51
• December 8, 2015

  Prudent Preparation: The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policies

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz The Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Poloz speaks about the Bank’s updated framework for unconventional monetary policies.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments

• Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries

  Staff Working Paper 2015-45 Gabriel Bruneau, Kevin Moran

  We estimate the link between exchange rate fluctuations and the labour input of Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand, and the econometric strategy employs a panel two-step approach for cointegrating regressions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, F, F1, F14, F16, F3, F31, F4, F41, J, J2, J23

• Speculators, Prices and Market Volatility

  Staff Working Paper 2015-42 Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Jeffrey H. Harris

  We analyze data from 2005 through 2009 that uniquely identify categories of traders to assess how speculators such as hedge funds and swap dealers relate to volatility and price changes. Examining various subperiods where price trends are strong, we find little evidence that speculators destabilize financial markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, G, G1
• November 19, 2015

  Is Slower Growth the New Normal in Advanced Economies?

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker

  This article reviews and examines some of the main explanations for the slow growth that many advanced economies continue to experience seven years after the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Does this muted recovery reflect just a prolonged cycle in the aftermath of a financial crisis? Is it due to a structural inadequacy of demand leading to a long-lasting liquidity trap? Or is it largely supply side in nature, reflecting demographic and technological factors?

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4, O40
• November 19, 2015

  Recent Enhancements to the Management of Canada’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Mervin Merkowsky, Eric Wolfe

  As the size and complexity of the foreign exchange reserves have grown over the years, enhancements to the management framework needed to keep pace. This is a common theme for most reserve managers around the world. In Canada, the enhancements focused on governance, portfolio management, risk measurement and risk management. This article briefly describes these enhancements, why they were implemented and some of the lessons learned along the way.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1
• October 21, 2015

  Release of the Monetary Policy Report

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario

  Press conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments