Recent economic and financial developments

• April 13, 2016

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
• March 30, 2016

  Adjusting to the Fall in Commodity Prices: One Step at a Time

  Remarks Lynn Patterson Edmonton Chamber of Commerce Edmonton, Alberta

  Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discusses how the Canadian economy is adjusting to the fall in commodity prices.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments
• February 24, 2016

  Connecting the Dots: Elevated Household Debt and the Risk to Financial Stability

  Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Guelph Chamber of Commerce Guelph, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses household debt, the risk it poses to financial stability and the role of the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet

• What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay

  The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
• January 20, 2016

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments

• Extending the Labour Market Indicator to the Canadian Provinces

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-2 Alexander Fritsche, Katherine Ragan

  Calculating the labour market indicator (LMI) at the provincial level provides useful insights into Canada’s regional economies and reveals differing trends in the state of underlying labour market conditions across provinces. Conclusions based on the Canadian LMI do not necessarily translate to the provinces. In most cases, the correlations between the provincial LMIs and the underlying labour market variables have the expected sign.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E27, J, J2, J21, J23

• The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz

  In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00
• December 15, 2015

  Indebted Households and Potential Vulnerabilities for the Canadian Financial System: A Microdata Analysis

  Financial System Review - December 2015 Gino Cateau, Tom Roberts, Jie Zhou

  Over the past decade, an increasing proportion of households in Canada have become highly indebted relative to their income. These highly indebted households now hold one-fifth of total Canadian household debt.Simulations suggest that this greater degree of household indebtedness could exacerbate the impact of shocks to income and interest rates relative to the pre-crisis period. However, an assessment of the vulnerability of the Canadian financial system should, among other factors, account for the ability of Canadian financial institutions to withstand losses from the household sector.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E5, E51
• December 8, 2015

  Prudent Preparation: The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policies

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz The Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Poloz speaks about the Bank’s updated framework for unconventional monetary policies.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments

• Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries

  Staff Working Paper 2015-45 Gabriel Bruneau, Kevin Moran

  We estimate the link between exchange rate fluctuations and the labour input of Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand, and the econometric strategy employs a panel two-step approach for cointegrating regressions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, F, F1, F14, F16, F3, F31, F4, F41, J, J2, J23