November 1, 2017
Recent economic and financial developments
-
-
Global Factors and Inflation in Canada
This note investigates whether the recent weakness in inflation in Canada can be related to global factors not included in the current staff analytical framework (domestic slack, movements in commodity prices and in the exchange rate). A global common factor for inflation among selected advanced economies appears to contain marginal information for Canadian inflation beyond what is found in movements in commodity prices and the exchange rate. -
September 27, 2017
The Meaning of “Data Dependence”: An Economic Progress Report
Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how unknowns in Canada’s inflation outlook have made the Bank’s monetary policy particularly data dependent. -
A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices
In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component. -
September 18, 2017
How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times
Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses the changing nature of international trade and the factors that are propelling it. -
Do Canadian Broker-Dealers Act as Agents or Principals in Bond Trading?
Technology, risk tolerance and regulation may influence dealers to reduce their trading as principals (using their own balance sheets for sales and purchases of securities) in favour of agency trading (matching client trades). -
Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?
It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view. -
July 12, 2017
Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement
Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. -
Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada
This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline. -
Wage Growth in Canada and the United States: Factors Behind Recent Weakness
This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change).