Recent economic and financial developments

• December 5, 2019

  Canadian economy resilient despite global uncertainty

  Speech summary Timothy Lane Ottawa Board of Trade and Ottawa Business Journal Ottawa, Ontario

  Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady, Deputy Governor Timothy Lane explained that Canada’s economy remains resilient.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments

• What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic

  I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44
• September 5, 2019

  Economic Progress Report: Inflation in Canada—Well Behaved and Well Controlled

  Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Halifax Regional Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the behaviour of inflation in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
• September 5, 2019

  Canadian economy resilient even as global outlook worsens

  Speech summary Lawrence L. Schembri Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discussed the key points Governing Council considered in their decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments

• The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau

  This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68
• May 30, 2019

  Economic Progress Report: Investing in Growth

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about the importance of business investment to the Canadian economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
• May 30, 2019

  Economic progress depends on business investment

  Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about the importance of business investment to the Canadian economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments

• Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-15 Timothy Grieder, Claire Schaffter

  The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to gross domestic product in Canada has increased noticeably in recent years and is currently at an all-time high. In light of this development, we use a unique firm-level dataset to construct vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32

• Reassessing the Growth of HELOCs in Canada Using New Regulatory Data

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-14 Leila Al-Mqbali, Olga Bilyk, Stefan Caputo, James Younker

  Using new regulatory data on residential secured lending from Canadian banks, we assess the growth rate of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, G, G2, G21, G28
• May 6, 2019

  Risk Sharing, Flexibility and the Future of Mortgages

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Credit Union Association and Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba

  Governor Poloz talks about Canada’s housing market and how the mortgage market could evolve to give Canadians more choice, make the economy more flexible and lower the level of financial system risk.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Financial services, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration