November 10, 2022
Productivity
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Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022
We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment. -
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%. -
Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth
This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada. -
Job Ladder and Business Cycles
During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation. -
February 9, 2022
The role of Canadian business in fostering non-inflationary growth
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how business investment and stronger productivity are vital to sustaining non-inflationary economic growth. -
February 9, 2022
Producing growth with less inflation
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how—by investing in technology and people—businesses can help the economy grow more with less inflation. -
December 24, 2021
Understanding the output gap
The output gap is the difference between what an economy actually produces and what it would produce in an ideal world. -
December 24, 2021
Understanding productivity
High productivity helps raise our standard of living and keep our economy competitive. -
Job Applications and Labour Market Flows
Although the number of job applications has risen, job-finding rates remain relatively unchanged while job-separation rates have significantly declined. Rather than raising the probability of finding a job, we find that a rise in applications raises the probability of finding a good match, as evidenced by the decline in separation rates.