Potential output
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Driving Forces of the Canadian Economy: An Accounting Exercise
This paper analyses the Canadian economy for the post 1960 period. It uses an accounting procedure developed in Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2006). The procedure identifies accounting factors that help align the predictions of the neoclassical growth model with macroeconomic variables observed in the data. -
June 17, 2007
Trend Labour Supply in Canada: Implications of Demographic Shifts and the Increasing Labour Force Attachment of Women
While demographic change has been an ongoing process in Canada, labour market implications of an aging population will become more acute in coming years. This article discusses the anticipated slowing in the growth of trend labour input over the coming decades with the aging of the baby boomers, declining fertility rates, and the stabilization of the labour force attachment of women. As the pool of labour shrinks, employers and governments will be looking for ways to address barriers to continued labour force participation and firms will have a greater incentive to find ways of improving labour productivity. -
Schooling, Inequality and Government Policy
This paper asks: What is the effect of government policy on output and inequality in an environment with education and labor-supply decisions? The answer is given in a general equilibrium model, consistent with the post 1960s facts on male wage inequality and labor supply in the U.S. In the model, education and labor-supply decisions depend on progressive income taxation, the education system, the social security system, and technology-driven wage differentials. -
December 8, 2006
Perspectives on Productivity and Potential Output Growth: A Summary of the Joint Banque de France/Bank of Canada Workshop, 24–25 April 2006
A nation's productivity is the prime determinant of its real incomes and standard of living, as well as being a major determinant of its potential output. In the short run, deviations of actual output from potential output are a useful indicator of inflationary pressures. This article is a short summary of the proceedings of the workshop, which focus on productivity and potential output growth among industrialized countries. The research is organized under three main themes: estimating potential growth; productivity and growth; and institutions, policies, and growth. -
Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni
The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom. -
Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach
The author evaluates the ability of a variety of output-gap estimators to accurately measure the output gap in a model economy. A small estimated model of the Canadian economy is used to generate artificial data. -
An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP
The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. GDP. -
Filtering for Current Analysis
This paper shows how existing band-pass filtering techniques and their extension can be applied to the common current-analysis problem of estimating current trends or cycles. -
La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada
In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation.