Monetary policy

• How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland

  We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58
• December 14, 2017

  Three Things Keeping Me Awake at Night

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses his long-term economic preoccupations now that the Canadian economy has nearly completed its journey home.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output

• Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev

  This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52
• November 15, 2017

  Embracing Uncertainty in the Conduct of Monetary Policy

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Money Marketeers of New York University New York, New York

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains how uncertainty is factored into monetary policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission

• Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-14 Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy

  While central banks cannot provide complete foresight with respect to their future policy actions, it is in the interests of both central banks and market participants that central banks be transparent about their reaction functions and how they may evolve in response to economic developments, shocks, and risks to their outlooks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65

• Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-13 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events whose precise magnitudes and effects cannot be known with certainty.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65
• November 7, 2017

  Understanding Inflation: Getting Back to Basics

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz CFA Montréal and Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how recent weak inflation in Canada and other economies can be explained by fundamental factors.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation
• November 1, 2017

  Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario

  Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be back before you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. When we were last here in April, we were celebrating the fact that we had upgraded our economic forecast following a […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet

• Alternative Scenario to the October 2017 MPR Base-Case Projection: Higher Potential Growth

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-18 Jing Yang, Ben Tomlin, Olivier Gervais

  We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E24, E27, E5
• September 27, 2017

  The Meaning of “Data Dependence”: An Economic Progress Report

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how unknowns in Canada’s inflation outlook have made the Bank’s monetary policy particularly data dependent.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments