Monetary policy framework

• June 21, 2006

  Credibility with Flexibility: The Evolution of Inflation-Targeting Regimes, 1990–2006

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2006 Graydon Paulin

  Beginning with a review of the adoption of inflation targeting in a broad group of countries, Paulin focuses on changes in the design of inflation-targeting frameworks in light of fifteen years of accumulated experience. Included in the discussion are the use of numerical targets and ranges, the policy horizon, supporting institutional policy structures, and communication, including the publication of forecasts. A recurring theme is how much flexibility an inflation-targeting regime allows. The article concludes that the changes made to the frameworks have been relatively modest since their adoption, but in concert with the improved credibility that has resulted from central banks meeting their inflation-control targets, they have allowed an increasingly nuanced response to economic shocks.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
• June 11, 2006

  Evaluating Measures of Core Inflation

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2006 Thérèse Laflèche, Jamie Armour

  Since the Bank of Canada adopted inflation targeting in 1991, it has focused on a measure of core inflation as a shorter-term guide for monetary policy. When the targets were renewed in 2001, the Bank adopted CPIX as its measure of core inflation because of the advantages it offered. Leflèche and Armour review the experience with CPIX and whether the criteria used to select it in 2001 still favour the measure today. They describe the various measures of core inflation monitored by the Bank and evaluate them on the basis of the volatility of the components, the volatility of the core measures themselves, absence of bias relative to total CPI, predictive power, and certain practical criteria, including timeliness and credibility. They conclude that CPIX still satisfies all the empirical and practical criteria.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
• June 2, 2006

  Another Look at the Inflation-Target Horizon

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2006 Donald Coletti, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  The conduct of monetary policy within an inflation-targeting framework requires the establishment of an inflation-target horizon, which is the average time it takes inflation to return to the target. Policy-makers have an interest in communicating this horizon, since it is likely to help anchor inflation expectations. This article focuses on the determination of the appropriate policy horizon by reporting on two recent Bank of Canada studies. The evidence suggests that the current target horizon of six to eight quarters remains appropriate. It is important to note that the duration of the optimal inflation-target horizon varies widely, depending on the combination of shocks to the economy. In rare cases when the financial accelerator is triggered by a persistent shock, such as an asset-price bubble, it may be appropriate to take a longer view of the inflation-target horizon.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission
• April 15, 2006

  Issues in Inflation Targeting: A Summary of the Bank of Canada Conference Held 28-29 April 2005

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2006 Robert Amano, Raphael Solomon

  The Bank of Canada's 2005 conference focused on two critical issues: price-level targets versus inflation targets, and the appropriate level of inflation. Session topics included new methodological approaches to examining the validity of the New Keynesian Phillips curve for Canada; the monetary policy implications of border effects and the financial-accelerator model; the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates; and inflation and welfare in general-equilibrium macroeconomic models. A panel of invited speakers discussed the issues of each session, and two distinguished speakers gave their perspectives on inflation.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework

• The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2006-11 René Lalonde, Nicolas Parent

  In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument - the federal funds rate - the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E5, E52
• December 22, 2005

  70 Years of Central Banking: The Bank of Canada in an International Context, 1935–2005

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2005-2006 Michael Bordo, Angela Redish

  Bordo and Redish examine the evolution of central banking over the past 70 years and identify periods where Canada was either a notable innovator with regard to central banking practices or appeared to be following a slightly different course. They note that global forces seemed to play an important role in determining inflation outcomes throughout the 70-year period, and that Canada and the United States experienced roughly similar inflation rates despite some important differences in their monetary policy regimes. Canada, for example, was comparatively late in establishing a central bank, launching the Bank of Canada long after most other industrial countries had one. Canada also operated under a flexible exchange rate through much of the Bretton Woods period, unlike any other country in the 1950s and early 1960s; adopted inflation targets well before most other central banks; and introduced a number of other innovative changes with regard to the implementation of monetary policy in the 1990s.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework
• December 18, 2005

  Free Banking and the Bank of Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2005-2006 David Laidler

  Economists in the nineteenth century spent considerable time discussing the merits of a free-banking system, in which each commercial bank would be able to issue its own notes and deposits, subject to a convertibility requirement backed by its own gold reserves. Such a system, the proponents argued, would be able to deliver price-level stability yet be flexible enough to withstand the vicissitudes of the business cycle. Moreover, there would be no need for central banks. While this idea has received less attention in recent years, some economists still put it forward as a practical alternative to the current system. Laidler suggests that the centralizing tendencies in banking would inevitably undermine competition within a free-banking system, and lead to the natural emergence of one dominant bank. Other developments in the twentieth century, most notably the demise of the gold standard and widespread agreement that governments should play a determining role in setting monetary policy goals, have also limited the practicality of such a system. Laidler examines the Bank of Canada's history from the free-banking perspective and concludes that the current system of inflation targeting provides a much better anchor for orderly price-level behaviour than the free-banking system's convertibility could ever guarantee.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary policy framework

• The 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program in Retrospect

  Staff Working Paper 2005-43 John Sargent

  The author provides an overview of the 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program (AIP), in a background document prepared for a seminar organized by the Bank of Canada to mark the AIP's 30th anniversary.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E6, E63, E64, E65
• April 22, 2005

  Borders, Common Currencies, Trade, and Welfare: What Can We Learn from the Evidence?

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2005 John F. Helliwell, Lawrence L. Schembri

  Recent evidence indicates that the intensity of economic exchange within and across borders is significantly different: linkages are much tighter within, than among, nation-states. These findings, however, do not necessarily imply that borders and separate national currencies represent significant barriers to trade that should be removed, since the evidence is also consistent with the alternative hypothesis, that domestic exchange is more efficient because domestic producers are better able to satisfy the requirements of local consumers, owing to common tastes and institutions and the existence of local information and social networks. Focusing primarily on trade linkages within and between Canada and the United States, the authors review the evidence on the extent to which national borders lessen the intensity of international economic linkages, primarily trade in goods and services, and the effects on domestic welfare. They also examine the evidence on the impact of common currencies on trade and welfare. They determine that, since the empirical models employed to date in this research cannot distinguish between alternative explanations of the evidence, it is not yet possible to draw firm conclusions for policy-making.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, International topics, Monetary policy framework
• November 24, 2004

  Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: A Canadian Perspective on the Issues

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2004 Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  The issue addressed in this article is the extent to which monetary policy in Canada should respond to asset-price bubbles. The article concludes that maintaining low and stable consumer price inflation is the best contribution that monetary policy can make to promoting economic and financial stability, even when the economy experiences asset-price bubbles. In extreme circumstances—when an asset-price bubble is well identified and likely to have significant costs to the economy when it bursts—monetary policy might better maintain low and stable consumer price inflation by leaning against a particular bubble even though it may mean that inflation deviates temporarily from its target. Such a strategy might reduce the risk that a crash in asset prices could lead to a recession and to inflation markedly below target in the longer run. The circumstances where this strategy is possible will be rare because economists are far from being able to determine consistently and reliably when leaning against a particular bubble is likely to do more harm than good. Housing-price bubbles should be a greater concern for Canadian monetary policy than equity-price bubbles, since rising housing prices are more likely to reflect excessively easy domestic credit conditions than are equity prices, which are largely determined in global markets.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy framework