Monetary policy

• Mortgage stress tests and household financial resilience under monetary policy tightening

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-25 Jonathan Hartley, Nuno Paixão

  This note analyzes mortgage stress tests, a macroprudential tool. We find that when mortgage stress tests are applied to all mortgage purchase originations, they improve credit quality and reduce credit and house price growth. They also improve the resilience of borrowers to financial shocks, such as the large increase in interest rates during 2022–23.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, G28, G5, G50, G51

• Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US?

  Staff Working Paper 2024-38 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang

  We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E6, E63

• Public and Private Money Creation for Distributed Ledgers: Stablecoins, Tokenized Deposits, or Central Bank Digital Currencies?

  Staff Working Paper 2024-35 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet

  This paper explores the implications of introducing digital public and private monies (e.g. tokenized central bank digital currency [CBDC] or tokenized deposits) for stablecoins and illicit crypto transactions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58

• Estimating the Portfolio-Balance Effects of the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program

  Staff Working Paper 2024-34 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  Using a novel dynamic portfolio balance model of the yield curve for Government of Canada bonds, I find that the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63

• Evaluating the portfolio balance effects of the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program on the Canadian yield curve

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-22 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  The Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, launched in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, lowered the weighted average maturity of the Government of Canada’s debt by approximately 1.4 years. This in turn reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63
• September 19, 2024

  Monetary policy decision-making: Behind the scenes

  Remarks Nicolas Vincent Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce and Industry Sherbrooke, Quebec

  External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent gives a behind the scenes look at the rigorous research, analysis and debate that go into every monetary policy decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission
• September 19, 2024

  Getting to a monetary policy decision

  Speech summary Nicolas Vincent Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce and Industry Sherbrooke, Quebec

  External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent gives a behind-the-scenes look at how the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council arrives at its monetary policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission

• Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2024-30 Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman, Mike West

  We use Bayesian predictive decision synthesis to formalize monetary policy decision-making. We develop a case-study of monetary policy decision-making of an inflation-targeting central bank using multiple models in a manner that considers decision goals, expectations and outcomes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, C5, C53

• Central Bank Digital Currency and Transmission of Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2024-27 Saroj Bhattarai, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Zhenning Zhao

  How does the transmission of monetary policy change when a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is introduced in the economy? Does CBDC design matter? We study these questions in a general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, liquidity frictions, and a banking sector where commercial banks face a leverage constraint.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E5, E50, E58, G, G2, G21, G5, G51
• June 24, 2024

  Workers, jobs, growth and inflation—Today and tomorrow

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba

  Governor Tiff Macklem explains why Canada’s labour market has had a fairly smooth adjustment to slowing economic growth. He also discusses Canada’s labour market advantages and the challenge of improving productivity growth and investment.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Labour markets, Monetary policy, Productivity