May 12, 2022
Labour markets
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Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%. -
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health
We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock. -
What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada
COVID-19 affects technology adoption: online job postings for technology-related occupations fall less during pandemic lockdowns and pick up faster during reopenings than postings for more traditional occupations. -
Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth
This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada. -
March 25, 2022
A world of difference: Households, the pandemic and monetary policy
Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how differences among households affect economic outcomes, how shocks can have important uneven effects across households, and why these things matter for monetary policy. -
March 25, 2022
Household differences and why they matter
Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about why differences in income, wealth and debt across households are important for the economy and what the Bank of Canada will be watching for as interest rates rise. -
Job Ladder and Business Cycles
During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation. -
The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve
Globalization is in retreat, yet digitalization is on the rise. How will these trends impact inflation? -
February 9, 2022
The role of Canadian business in fostering non-inflationary growth
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how business investment and stronger productivity are vital to sustaining non-inflationary economic growth.