International financial markets

• Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2018-22 Edouard Djeutem, Geoffrey R. Dunbar

  We propose an uncovered expected returns parity (URP) condition for the bilateral spot exchange rate. URP implies that unilateral exchange rate equations are misspecified and that equity returns also affect exchange rates. Fama regressions provide evidence that URP is statistically preferred to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for nominal bilateral exchange rates between the US dollar and six countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the UK) at the monthly frequency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15

• Can the Canadian International Investment Position Stabilize a Slowing Economy?

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-14 Maxime Leboeuf, Chen Fan

  In this note, we find that valuation effects can act as an important stabilizer, strengthening Canada’s net external wealth when its economic outlook worsens relative to that of other countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32

• Measuring Limits of Arbitrage in Fixed-Income Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2017-44 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin

  We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, International financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals

  Staff Working Paper 2017-22 Lorenzo Pozzi, Barbara Sadaba

  This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
• June 8, 2017

  Canada’s International Investment Position: Benefits and Potential Vulnerabilities

  Financial System Review - June 2017 Gabriel Bruneau, Maxime Leboeuf, Guillaume Nolin

  While greater global financial integration is beneficial, the authors discuss how foreign capital inflows can also facilitate the buildup of domestic vulnerabilities and potentially lead to destabilizing reversals. Canada’s current international investment position is typical of advanced economies and will likely continue to act as an economic stabilizer. However, the growth and composition of Canada’s international investment position warrant continued monitoring.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, F34, F36, F4, F6

• Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rate Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2017-19 Claudia Foroni, Francesco Ravazzolo, Barbara Sadaba

  Increased sovereign credit risk is often associated with sharp currency movements. Therefore, expectations of the probability of a sovereign default event can convey important information regarding future movements of exchange rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53, F, F3, F31

• Accounting for Real Exchange Rates Using Micro‐Data

  Staff Working Paper 2017-12 Mario J. Crucini, Anthony Landry

  The classical dichotomy predicts that all of the time-series variance in the aggregate real exchange rate is accounted for by non-traded goods in the consumer price index (CPI) basket because traded goods obey the Law of One Price. In stark contrast, Engel (1999) claimed the opposite: that traded goods accounted for all of the variance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International financial markets, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F3
• March 28, 2017

  Canada at 150: It Takes a World to Raise a Nation

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz 50th Anniversary of Durham College Oshawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how Canada’s economic progress has been driven by its historic preference for openness to immigration, investment and trade.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, International financial markets, Productivity, Trade integration
• March 2, 2017

  Thermometer Rising—Climate Change and Canada’s Economic Future

  Remarks Timothy Lane Finance and Sustainability Initiative Montréal, Quebec

  Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the implications of climate change—and actions to address it—for Canada’s economy and financial system.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, International topics

• Expropriation Risk and FDI in Developing Countries: Does Return of Capital Dominate Return on Capital?

  Staff Working Paper 2017-9 M. Akhtaruzzaman, Nathan Berg, Christopher Hajzler

  Previously reported effects of institutional quality and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) are mixed and, therefore, difficult to interpret. We present empirical evidence suggesting a relatively clear, statistically robust, and intuitive characterization.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, International financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, F, F2, F21, F23