International financial markets

• How foreign central banks can affect liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-26 Patrick Aldridge, Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova

  We find that foreign central banks own a large share of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds and tend to hold their positions for longer than other types of asset managers. This buy-and-hold behaviour could offer benefits. For example, foreign central banks may be less likely than other asset managers to sell bonds and add to strains on market liquidity in periods of turmoil. However, foreign central banks’ buy-and-hold behaviour combined with their minimal lending of GoC bonds in securities-financing markets, as observed in our available data, can potentially lower liquidity because fewer GoC bonds are available for others to transact in secondary markets. Indeed, we find that higher levels of foreign central banks’ GoC bond holdings are related to lower liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Foreign reserves management, International financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F30, F31, G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G12, G15, G2, G23

• Foreign exchange risk premiums and global currency factors

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-20 Ingomar Krohn, Mariel Yacolca Maguiña

  Global currency risk factors continue to explain a large share of the variation in the Canadian dollar during the period following the 2008–09 global financial crisis. We show that they are also systematically important for risk premiums, and only in recent months has the role of idiosyncratic country-specific risks grown.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2024?

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-19 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Alex Charron

  The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2024 edition updates the historical data and revisits sovereign defaults on local currency debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• The Role of International Financial Integration in Monetary Policy Transmission

  Staff Working Paper 2024-3 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang

  We propose an open-economy New Keynesian model with financial integration that allows financial intermediaries to hold foreign long-term bonds. We study the implications of financial integration on monetary policy transmission. Among various aspects of financial integration, the bond duration plays a major role. These results hold for conventional and unconventional monetary policies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, International financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F3, F36, F4, F42

• BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2023?

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-10 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Karim McDaniels, Alex Charron

  The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2023 edition includes a new section about the characteristics of sovereign defaults and provides new visuals showing regional debt in default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Appendix and References

  Technical Report No. 125 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Alex Charron

  Since 2014, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. The database is posted on the BoC’s website and is updated annually in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology and Assumptions

  Technical Report No. 124 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Alex Charron

  The Bank of Canada (BoC), in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE), developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults in 2014. The database is posted on the Bank of Canada’s website and updated annually. The BoC–BoE database draws on datasets published by various public and private sector sources. It combines elements of these, together with new information, to develop comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows

  Staff Working Paper 2023-31 Nick Sander

  I provide evidence that portfolio equity inflows can have expansionary effects on GDP and inflation if not offset by monetary policy. I use a shift-share instrument to estimate equity inflows based on plausibly exogenous timing of inflows into mutual funds with heterogeneous country portfolios.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F3, F32, F4, F44
• May 18, 2023

  Release of the Financial System Review

  Opening statement Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers Ottawa, Ontario

  Press conference following the release of the Financial System Review.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, International financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments, Wholesale funding
• May 4, 2023

  Getting inflation back to 2%

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Toronto Region Board of Trade Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem explains that higher interest rates are working to slow inflation but warns that getting all the way back to the 2% target may take time. He also discusses the recent stress in the global banking sector and how financial stability and price stability work together.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Expectations, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International financial markets, Monetary policy, Price stability, Service sector