Interest rates

• Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective

  Staff Working Paper 2006-48 David Bolder

  Modelling term-structure dynamics is an important component in measuring and managing the exposure of portfolios to adverse movements in interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1

• Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?

  Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

• An Evaluation of MLE in a Model of the Nonlinear Continuous-Time Short-Term Interest Rate

  Staff Working Paper 2005-45 Ingrid Lo

  The author compares the performance of three Gaussian approximation methods - by Nowman (1997), Shoji and Ozaki (1998), and Yu and Phillips (2001) - in estimating a model of the nonlinear continuous-time short-term interest rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, E, E4

• The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2005-36 René Garcia, Richard Luger

  The authors develop and estimate an equilibrium-based model of the Canadian term structure of interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, E5, E52

• Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process

  Staff Working Paper 2005-35 Fuchun Li

  A new consistent test is proposed for the parametric specification of the diffusion function in a diffusion process without any restrictions on the functional form of the drift function.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14

• Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-33 Ramdane Djoudad, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

• An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates

  Staff Working Paper 2004-48 David Bolder, Adam Metzler, Grahame Johnson

  Zero-coupon interest rates are the fundamental building block of fixed-income mathematics, and as such have an extensive number of applications in both finance and economics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1
• November 23, 2004

  Real Return Bonds: Monetary Policy Credibility and Short-Term Inflation Forecasting

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2004 Christopher Reid, Frédéric Dion, Ian Christensen

  The break-even inflation rate (BEIR) is calculated by comparing the yields on conventional and Real Return Bonds. Defined as the average rate of inflation that equates the expected returns on these two bonds, the BEIR has the potential to contain useful information about long-run inflation expectations. Yet the BEIR has been higher, on average, and more variable than survey measures of inflation expectations, which may be explained by the effects of premiums and distortions embedded in the BEIR. Because of the difficulty in accounting for these distortions, the BEIR should not be given a large weight as a measure of long-run inflation expectations at this time. However, as the Real Return Bond market continues to develop, the BEIR should become a more useful indicator of inflation expectations. At present, it demonstrates no clear advantage over survey measures and even past inflation rates in forecasting near-term inflation.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing

• Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate

  Staff Working Paper 2004-43 Ian Christensen, Christopher Reid, Frédéric Dion

  According to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E43
• August 24, 2004

  The Efficiency of Canadian Capital Markets: Some Bank of Canada Research

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2004 Scott Hendry, Michael R. King

  Capital markets and their related financial instruments make an important contribution to the welfare of Canadians. The Bank of Canada is interested in the efficient functioning of capital markets through each of its responsibilities for monetary policy, the financial system, and funds management. Hendry and King highlight the key findings of Bank research published over the past year that addresses capital market efficiency and summarize lessons that have been learned. The research conducted thus far suggests that Canadian capital markets are efficient for a capital market of Canada's size but are less diverse than the U.S. capital markets, indicating that there is room for improvement in certain areas.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial services, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing