Interest rates

• Testing for the Diffusion Matrix in a Continuous-Time Markov Process Model with Applications to the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  Staff Working Paper 2015-17 Fuchun Li

  The author proposes a test for the parametric specification of each component in the diffusion matrix of a d-dimensional diffusion process. Overall, d (d-1)/2 test statistics are constructed for the off-diagonal components, while d test statistics are constructed for the main diagonal components.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, E, E1, E17, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G2, G20

• Euro Area Government Bonds—Integration and Fragmentation During the Sovereign Debt Crisis

  Staff Working Paper 2015-13 Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher

  The paper analyzes the integration of euro area sovereign bond markets during the European sovereign debt crisis. It tests for contagion (i.e., an intensification in the transmission of shocks across countries), fragmentation (a reduction in spillovers) and flight-to-quality patterns, exploiting the heteroskedasticity of intraday changes in bond yields for identification.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E5, F, F3, G, G1, G15
• April 15, 2015

  Release of the Monetary Policy Report

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario

  Press conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
• March 26, 2015

  Central Bank Credibility and Policy Normalization

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canada-United Kingdom Chamber of Commerce London, United Kingdom

  Governor Poloz discusses the recent rise in financial market volatility and low long-term borrowing costs, and what they both mean for central bank credibility.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Credibility, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation
• January 21, 2015

  Release of the Monetary Policy Report

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario

  Press conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments

• Labour Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing

  Staff Working Paper 2014-47 Serdar Kabaca

  This paper contributes to the literature by documenting labour income share fluctuations in emerging-market economies and proposing an explanation for them. Time-series data indicate that emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of changes in the labour share over the business cycle.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Interest rates, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E25, E4, E44, F, F4, F41

• The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-5 Rhys R. Mendes

  A measure of the neutral policy interest rate can be used to gauge the stance of monetary policy. We define the neutral rate as the real policy rate consistent with output at its potential level and inflation equal to target after the effects of all cyclical shocks have dissipated.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58

• Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labour Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2014-35 Sumru Altug, Serdar Kabaca

  This paper examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of labour input in the context of a business cycle model with a financial friction. We document significant variation in the hours worked per worker for many emerging-market economies. Both employment and hours worked per worker are positively correlated with each other and with output.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Interest rates, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F4, F41, J, J4, J40

• Improving Overnight Loan Identification in Payments Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2014-25 Mark Rempel

  Information on the allocation and pricing of over-the-counter (OTC) markets is scarce. Furfine (1999) pioneered an algorithm that provides transaction-level data on the OTC interbank lending market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C53, E, E4, E42, E44, G, G1, G10

• Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models

  Staff Working Paper 2014-13 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12