March 7, 2019
Housing
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March 7, 2019
Spending shifts and consumer caution
Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates unchanged, Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discussed the key points Governing Council considered in their decision. -
Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada
Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility. -
December 6, 2018
Year-End Economic Progress Report: Financial Vulnerabilities in Focus
Governor Poloz talks about how household debt levels and housing markets played a role in the latest interest-rate decision. -
December 6, 2018
Governor Poloz speaks on financial vulnerabilities and risks to the economy
In his final speech of 2018, Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the vulnerabilities and risks in Canada’s financial system as well as Canadian and global economic developments. He explains how all this was taken into account in the December interest rate decision. -
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada
How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false. -
Modelling the Macrofinancial Effects of a House Price Correction in Canada
We use a suite of risk-assessment models to examine the possible impact of a hypothetical house price correction, centred in the Toronto and Vancouver areas. We also assume financial stress significantly amplifies the macroeconomic impact of the house price decline. -
The Framework for Risk Identification and Assessment
Risk assessment models are an important component of the Bank’s analytical tool kit for assessing the resilience of the financial system. We describe the Framework for Risk Identification and Assessment (FRIDA), a suite of models developed at the Bank of Canada to quantify the impact of financial stability risks to the broader economy and a range of financial system participants (households, businesses and banks). -
Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category
Because the Bank of Canada has started withdrawing monetary stimulus, monitoring the transmission of these changes to monetary policy will be important. Subcomponents of consumption and housing will likely respond differently to a monetary policy tightening, both in terms of the aggregate effect and timing. -
June 7, 2018
Release of the Financial System Review
Press conference following the release of the Financial System Review.