Fiscal policy
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The uneven economic consequences of COVID 19: A structural analysis
Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities. -
The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation
The secular decline in real interest rates has created a challenge for monetary policy, now confronting the zero lower bound more often. An increase in the supply of safe assets reduces downward pressure on the natural interest rate. This allows monetary policy to reach price stability and full employment, but not without cost—permanently lower investment. -
Monetary Policy, Trends in Real Interest Rates and Depressed Demand
Over the last few decades, real interest rates have trended downward. The most common explanation is that this reflects depressed demand due to demographic, technological and other real factors. We explore the claim that these trends may have been amplified by certain features of monetary policy. -
Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution
Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. -
Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature Review
This paper surveys and summarizes the literature on how fiscal policy and monetary policy can complement each other in stabilizing economic activity. -
(Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt
How should policy be designed at high debt levels, when fiscal authorities have little room to adjust taxes? Assigning the monetary authority a role in achieving debt sustainability makes it less effective in stabilizing inflation and output. -
Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic
We study the labour market and welfare effects of expanding unemployment insurance benefits and introducing payroll subsidies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that both policies are complementary and are beneficial to different types of workers. Payroll subsidies preserve the employment of workers in highly productive jobs, while unemployment insurance replaces lost income for workers who experience inevitable job loss. -
November 12, 2020
Helping the economy after the COVID‑19 pandemic
The pandemic won’t last forever. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. -
November 12, 2020
Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis.