Financial stability

• We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress

  Staff Working Paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée

  We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54

• On the Fragility of DeFi Lending

  Staff Working Paper 2023-14 Jonathan Chiu, Emre Ozdenoren, Kathy Yuan, Shengxing Zhang

  We develop a dynamic model to capture key features of decentralized finance lending. We identify a price-liquidity feedback: the market outcome in any given period depends on agents' expectations about lending activities in future periods, with higher future price expectations leading to more lending and higher prices in that period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10

• Central Bank Digital Currencies and Banking: Literature Review and New Questions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-4 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Yu Zhu

  We review the nascent but fast-growing literature on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), focusing on their potential impacts on private banks. We evaluate these impacts in three areas of traditional banking: payments, lending and liquidity and maturity transformation. We also take a broader look at CBDCs and highlight two promising directions for future research.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58, G, G0, G00, L, L0, L00

• Stress Relief? Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock

  Staff Working Paper 2023-7 Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich, Dennis Reinhardt

  Funding structures affected the amount of financial stress different countries and sectors experienced during the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. Policy responses targeting specific vulnerabilities were more effective at mitigating this stress than those supporting banks or the economy more broadly.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E65, F, F3, F31, F36, F4, F42, G, G1, G18, G2, G23, G3, G38

• Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)

  Technical Report No. 123 Kerem Tuzcuoglu

  The Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM) is a new nonlinear two-country dynamic model that captures rare but severe adverse shocks. The RAMM can be used to assess the financial stability implications of both domestic and foreign-originated risk scenarios.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E44, F, F4, F44

• Regulatory Requirements of Banks and Arbitrage in the Post-Crisis Federal Funds Market

  Staff Working Paper 2022-48 Rodney J. Garratt, Sofia Priazhkina

  This paper explains the nature of interest rates in the U.S. federal funds market after the 2007-09 financial crisis. We build a model of the over-the-counter lending market that incorporates new aspects of the financial system: abundance of liquidity, different regulatory standards for banks, and arbitrage opportunities created by limited access to the facility granting interest on excess reserves.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G28

• Stablecoins and Their Risks to Financial Stability

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-20 Cameron MacDonald, Laura Zhao

  What risks could stablecoins pose to the financial system? We argue that the stabilization mechanisms of stablecoins give rise to the risk of confidence runs, which can propagate to broader cryptoasset markets and the traditional financial sector. We also argue that stablecoins can contribute to financial stability risks by facilitating the buildup of leverage and liquidity mismatch in decentralized finance. Such risks cannot be addressed by ensuring the price stability of stablecoins alone. Finally, we explore the potential implications of stablecoins for the current system of bank-intermediated credit and for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E58, G, G2, G23
• November 22, 2022

  Tracking the financial vulnerabilities of households and the housing market

  The Bank of Canada is publishing a new set of indicators of financial vulnerabilities. This will allow households, the private sector, financial authorities and governments to better understand and monitor the evolution of two key vulnerabilities in the financial system: the elevated level of household indebtedness and high house prices.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D8, D84, E, E5, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21
• November 22, 2022

  Monitoring the health of Canada’s financial system

  Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Young Canadians in Finance Ottawa, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses risks and vulnerabilities in our financial system and what the Bank of Canada is doing to support financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments
• November 22, 2022

  Financial stability in times of uncertainty

  Remarks Carolyn Rogers Young Canadians in Finance Ottawa, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses the Bank’s work to monitor risks and vulnerabilities in Canada’s financial system and support greater financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments