Financial stability

• How foreign central banks can affect liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-26 Patrick Aldridge, Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova

  We find that foreign central banks own a large share of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds and tend to hold their positions for longer than other types of asset managers. This buy-and-hold behaviour could offer benefits. For example, foreign central banks may be less likely than other asset managers to sell bonds and add to strains on market liquidity in periods of turmoil. However, foreign central banks’ buy-and-hold behaviour combined with their minimal lending of GoC bonds in securities-financing markets, as observed in our available data, can potentially lower liquidity because fewer GoC bonds are available for others to transact in secondary markets. Indeed, we find that higher levels of foreign central banks’ GoC bond holdings are related to lower liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Foreign reserves management, International financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F30, F31, G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G12, G15, G2, G23

• Is This Normal? The Cost of Assuming that Derivatives Have Normal Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2024-46 Radoslav Raykov

  Derivatives exchanges often determine collateral requirements, which are fundamental to market safety, with dated risk models assuming normal returns. However, derivatives returns are heavy-tailed, which leads to the systematic under-collection of collateral (margin). This paper uses extreme value theory (EVT) to evaluate the cost of this margin inadequacy to market participants in the event of default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G11, G2, G20
• November 6, 2024

  Canada’s mortgage market—A question of balance

  Remarks Carolyn Rogers Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers looks at the mortgage market in Canada—past, present and future.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Monetary policy transmission
• November 6, 2024

  Finding balance in the mortgage market

  Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about Canada’s mortgage market and how it has evolved over time.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Monetary policy transmission

• Public and Private Money Creation for Distributed Ledgers: Stablecoins, Tokenized Deposits, or Central Bank Digital Currencies?

  Staff Working Paper 2024-35 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet

  This paper explores the implications of introducing digital public and private monies (e.g. tokenized central bank digital currency [CBDC] or tokenized deposits) for stablecoins and illicit crypto transactions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58
• September 24, 2024

  Economic growth during uncertain times

  Remarks Tiff Macklem IIF-CBA Forum Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses global uncertainty, and the Bank of Canada’s role in mitigating and managing risks to our economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial stability, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments
• September 20, 2024

  Artificial intelligence, the economy and central banking

  Remarks Tiff Macklem National Bureau of Economic Research, Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference Toronto, Ontario

  Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how artificial intelligence could impact the economy, and outlines some of the implications for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial stability, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Productivity

• BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2024?

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-19 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Alex Charron

  The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2024 edition updates the historical data and revisits sovereign defaults on local currency debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• Could all-to-all trading improve liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-17 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala

  We find that on any given day, nearly half of Government of Canada bond transactions by clients of dealers can be offset with other clients, including during the turmoil in March 2020. Our results show that under certain conditions clients could potentially trade directly with each other and are a step towards understanding the relevance of broader all-to-all trading in the Government of Canada bond market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G13, G14, G2, G21, G23

• The Ecology of Automated Market Makers

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-12 Annetta Ho, Cosmin Cazan, Andrew Schrumm

  This paper describes the ecology of automated market makers, which are the most popular decentralized exchange model for the pricing and trading of crypto assets within decentralized finance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2