Financial markets

• November 9, 2023

  Getting used to higher interest rates

  Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Advocis Vancouver Vancouver, British Columbia

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about why interest rates could settle at a higher level than Canadians are used to and why preparing early for that possible outcome is important.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Interest rates, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments
• November 9, 2023

  Financial stability in a world of higher interest rates

  Remarks Carolyn Rogers Advocis Vancouver Vancouver, British Columbia

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about financial stability in an era of higher interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Interest rates, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments

• Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans

  Staff Working Paper 2023-54 Michael Boutros, Nuno Clara, Francisco Gomes

  We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models, Financial markets, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E2, G, G5, H, H3

• Estimating the Appropriate Quantity of Settlement Balances in a Floor System

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-26 Narayan Bulusu, Matthew McNeely, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer

  This paper presents two complementary approaches to estimating the appropriate quantity of settlement balances needed to effectively operate monetary policy under a floor system in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28

• Predicting Changes in Canadian Housing Markets with Machine Learning

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-21 Johan Brannlund, Helen Lao, Maureen MacIsaac, Jing Yang

  We apply two machine learning algorithms to forecast monthly growth of house prices and existing homes sales in Canada. Although the algorithms can sometimes outperform a linear model, the improvement in forecast accuracy is not always statistically significant.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Housing JEL Code(s): A, C, C4, C45, C5, C53, D, D2, R, R2, R3

• Tattle-tails: Gauging downside risks using option prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-13 Greg Adams, Maksym Tupis

  Options markets offer unique insights into the changing risks different assets face, which helps us better understand the broader risks to the Canadian economy. We show how option prices help reveal that investors did not anticipate large downside risks to either major Canadian banks or economic growth during the March 2023 financial sector system stress, a period when policy-makers and investors were unsure of what the future held for Canada’s economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52

• Do hedge funds support liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-11 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala

  While Government of Canada bond transactions of hedge funds are typically in the opposite direction to those of other market participants, during the peak period of market turmoil in March 2020, hedge funds sold these bonds, just as other market participants did. This shows that hedge funds can at times contribute to one-sided markets and amplify declines in market liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G14, G2, G23

• It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-9 Greg Adams, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth. 

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, E5, E52

• Crowdfunding and Risk

  Staff Working Paper 2023-28 David Cimon

  Crowdfunding may enable unique products to reach the consumer market. I model a crowdfunding technology that publicly screens consumer demand early in the production process. In this model, entrepreneurs like crowdfunding for risky projects where demand is uncertain, but not for large, safe projects or for projects where production costs are uncertain.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial markets, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G24, G3, G32
• May 18, 2023

  Release of the Financial System Review

  Opening statement Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers Ottawa, Ontario

  Press conference following the release of the Financial System Review.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, International financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments, Wholesale funding