Econometric and statistical methods
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Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information
The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth. -
Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics: Evidence from a Two-Dimensional Labour Supply Model with Money
The hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labour supply has a history of empirical failure when confronted with aggregate time-series data. -
Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification-Robust Econometric Analysis
The authors use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. -
Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy
The linkages between inflation and the economy's cyclical position are thought to be strongly affected by the credibility of monetary authorities. -
Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?
In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity. -
Determinants of Borrowing Limits on Credit Cards
The difference between actual borrowings and borrowing limits alone generates information asymmetry in the credit card market. -
December 24, 2004
Government of Canada Yield-Curve Dynamics, 1986-2003
A database of historical Government of Canada zero-coupon yield curves developed at the Bank of Canada is introduced in this article, which also includes an initial statistical analysis of the behaviour and evolution of the zero-coupon interest (spot) rates over the full period and two distinct subperiods. Specific areas of interest include the evolution of the levels of key interest rates and yield-curve measures over the sample as well as daily changes in the key interest rates and the yield-curve measures; the identification of a relatively small number of factors that drove the evolution of the yield curve; and the total returns that would have been realized by holding bonds of different maturities for a given holding period. -
An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates
Zero-coupon interest rates are the fundamental building block of fixed-income mathematics, and as such have an extensive number of applications in both finance and economics. -
Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni
The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom.