Econometric and statistical methods
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Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals
This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps. -
A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth
This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). -
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Inflation and Unemployment: New Evidence Using Micro‐Level Data
Recent evidence suggests that the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in the Canadian labour market has risen following the 2008–09 recession (see Brouillette, Kostyshyna and Kyui 2016). -
Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?
How wrong could policymakers be when using linearized solutions to their macroeconomic models instead of nonlinear global solutions? -
Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rate Returns
Increased sovereign credit risk is often associated with sharp currency movements. Therefore, expectations of the probability of a sovereign default event can convey important information regarding future movements of exchange rates. -
Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter
We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes. -
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Estimation of the Total Private Cost for Large Businesses
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods faced low response rates and outliers in sample data for two of its retailer strata: chains and large independent businesses. This technical report investigates whether it is appropriate to combine these two strata to produce more accurate estimates of the total private cost to large businesses of the main payment methods. -
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Calibration for Single-Location Retailers
Calibrated weights are created to (a) reduce the nonresponse bias; (b) reduce the coverage error; and (c) make the weighted estimates from the sample consistent with the target population in terms of certain key variables. -
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Sampling
In 2015, the Bank of Canada undertook the large-scale Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods.