Econometric and statistical methods
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Deriving Longer-Term Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premium Measures for Canada
We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada. -
The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada
We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models. -
Non-Parametric Identification and Testing of Quantal Response Equilibrium
We show that the utility function and the error distribution are non-parametrically over-identified under Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE). This leads to a simple test for QRE. We illustrate our method in a Monte Carlo exercise and a laboratory experiment. -
The Role of Beliefs in Entering and Exiting the Bitcoin Market
We develop a model that links investors’ decisions to enter or exit the Bitcoin market with their beliefs about the survival of Bitcoin. Empirical testing using Canadian data reveals that beliefs strongly influence both entries and exits, and this impact varies with time and ownership status. -
Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures
We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability. -
Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation
I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors. -
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update
We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes. -
U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields
Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies. -
Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach
We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature.