Econometric and statistical methods

• Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-23 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos, Gabriela Galassi

  When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, J, J2, J21, J3, J30, J31, J8, J82

• Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2024-30 Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman, Mike West

  We use Bayesian predictive decision synthesis to formalize monetary policy decision-making. We develop a case-study of monetary policy decision-making of an inflation-targeting central bank using multiple models in a manner that considers decision goals, expectations and outcomes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, C5, C53

• Untapped Potential: Mobile Device Ownership and Mobile Payments in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2024-25 Marie-Hélène Felt, Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera

  We present a two-stage model of mobile phone and mobile payment usage that controls for selectivity. This reveals unobserved factors that work against having a mobile phone and toward mobile paying. Therefore, people who are unable to acquire or choose not to own a mobile device might have unmet payment needs.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C39, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42

• Deriving Longer-Term Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premium Measures for Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-9 Bruno Feunou, Zabi Tarshi

  We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12

• The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-7 Stefano Gnocchi, Fanny McKellips, Rodrigo Sekkel, Laure Simon, Yinxi Xie, Yang Zhang

  We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52

• Non-Parametric Identification and Testing of Quantal Response Equilibrium

  Staff Working Paper 2024-24 Johannes Hoelzemann, Ryan Webb, Erhao Xie

  We show that the utility function and the error distribution are non-parametrically over-identified under Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE). This leads to a simple test for QRE. We illustrate our method in a Monte Carlo exercise and a laboratory experiment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C57, C9, C92

• The Role of Beliefs in Entering and Exiting the Bitcoin Market

  Staff Working Paper 2024-22 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Jorge Vásquez, Marcel Voia

  We develop a model that links investors’ decisions to enter or exit the Bitcoin market with their beliefs about the survival of Bitcoin. Empirical testing using Canadian data reveals that beliefs strongly influence both entries and exits, and this impact varies with time and ownership status.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41, O, O3, O33

• Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures

  Staff Working Paper 2024-19 Grzegorz Halaj, Ruben Hipp

  We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14

• Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation

  Staff Working Paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault

  I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E10

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-8 Erik Ens, Alexander Lam, Kurt See, Gabriela Galassi

  We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6