Credit and credit aggregates

• Optimal Monetary Policy during Endogenous Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2009-32 Hajime Tomura

  This paper uses a small-open economy model for the Canadian economy to examine the optimal Taylor-type monetary policy rule that stabilizes output and inflation in an environment where endogenous boom-bust cycles in house prices can occur.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52

• Measures of Aggregate Credit Conditions and Their Potential Use by Central Banks

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-12 Alejandro García, Andrei Prokopiw

  Understanding the nature of credit risk has important implications for financial stability. Since authorities – notably, central banks – focus on risks that have systemic implications, it is crucial to develop ways to measure these risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12, G13

• Consumption, Housing Collateral, and the Canadian Business Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2009-26 Ian Christensen, Paul Corrigan, Caterina Mendicino, Shin-Ichi Nishiyama

  Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a small open economy model in which consumers face limits to credit determined by the value of their housing stock. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the role of collateralized household debt in the Canadian business cycle.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E52, R, R2, R21

• Credit Constraints and Consumer Spending

  Staff Working Paper 2009-25 Kimberly Beaton

  This paper examines the relationship between aggregate consumer spending and credit availability in the United States. The author finds that consumer spending falls (rises) in response to a reduction (increase) in credit availability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E27, E4, E44, E5, E51, E58

• Household Debt, Assets, and Income in Canada: A Microdata Study

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-7 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima, David Xiao Chen, Thomas J. Carter

  The authors use microdata from the 1999 and 2005 Surveys of Financial Security to identify changes in household debt, and discuss their potential implications for monetary policy and financial stability. They document an increase in the debt-income ratio, which rose from 0.75 to 0.95, on average.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Productivity, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24

• Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2009-15 Hajime Tomura

  This paper introduces heterogeneous beliefs among households in a small open economy model for the Canadian economy. The model suggests that simultaneous boom-bust cycles in house prices, output, investment, consumption and hours worked emerge when credit-constrained mortgage borrowers expect that future house prices will rise and this expectation is neither shared by savers nor realized ex-post.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52

• On the Amplification Role of Collateral Constraints

  Staff Working Paper 2008-23 Caterina Mendicino

  Following the seminal contribution of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), the role of collateral constraints for business cycle fluctuations has been highlighted by several authors and collateralized debt is becoming a popular feature of business cycle models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E32
• June 16, 2008

  A Money and Credit Real-Time Database for Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2008 Roobina Keshishbanoosy, Pierre St-Amant, Devin Ball, Ivan Medovikov

  Model-based forecasts of important economic variables are part of the range of information considered for monetary policy decision making.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy and uncertainty

• Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2008-10 Miroslav Misina, Greg Tkacz

  Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G1, G10

• A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2008-9 Hajime Tomura

  This paper considers a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy and finds that an improvement in the terms of trade causes a housing boom-bust cycle if the duration of the improvement is uncertain.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F4, F41