Climate change

• An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2023-27 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Sergey Paltsev, Marie-Christine Tremblay

  We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, F, F1, H, H2, Q, Q3, Q37, Q5

• What we can learn by linking firms’ reported emissions with their financial data

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-4 Matthew Ackman, Timothy Grieder, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée

  We analyze the financial statements and stock prices of publicly traded firms incorporated in Canada that report greenhouse gas emissions. We find that these firms primarily use equity financing. We also find that equity investors increasingly account for firms’ emissions when making investment decisions but the impact appears small. This suggests that assets exposed to climate change remain at risk of a sudden repricing.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Climate change, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G3, Q, Q5

• Cost Pass-Through with Capacity Constraints and International Linkages

  Staff Working Paper 2023-16 Reinhard Ellwanger, Hinnerk Gnutzmann, Piotr Śpiewanowski

  How are regional cost shocks passed through into global prices? We investigate the role of short-run capacity constraints and show that they can induce stark non-linearities in the pass-through. We highlight this effect for the market for ammonia, a commodity produced largely from natural gas.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): L, L1, L13, L6, L65, Q, Q4, Q40, Q5, Q54

• We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress

  Staff Working Paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée

  We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54

• Climate Variability and International Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin

  This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54

• Weather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil Production

  Staff Working Paper 2022-36 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger, Matthew Krutkiewicz

  Do technological improvements mitigate the potential damages from extreme weather events? We show that hurricanes lower offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and that stronger storms have larger impacts. Regulations enacted in 1980 that required improved offshore construction standards only modestly mitigated the production losses.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Climate change, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, Q, Q4, Q40, Q48, Q5, Q54
• January 14, 2022

  Bank of Canada/OSFI pilot helps Canadian financial sector assess climate change risks

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada and Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions today released the results of a pilot project on climate scenario analysis.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases Topic(s): Climate change

• Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk: Guide to Implementation of Methods

  Technical Report No. 120 Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Craig Logan, Miguel Molico, Xiangjin Shen, Marie-Christine Tremblay

  A pilot project on climate transition scenarios by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions assessed climate-related credit and market risks. This report describes the project’s methodologies and provides guidance on implementing them.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C83, G, G1, G3, G32

• Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-1 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Erik Ens, Olivier Gervais, Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Serdar Kabaca, Miguel Molico, Sergey Paltsev, Alex Proulx, Argyn Toktamyssov

  Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q5, Q54
• November 23, 2021

  Checking up on Canada’s financial system

  Speech summary Paul Beaudry Ontario Securities Commission Toronto, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry speaks about the strength and resilience of the financial system throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recovery. He also outlines key vulnerabilities and risks going forward.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing, Interest rates