Central bank research

• Unmet Payment Needs and a Central Bank Digital Currency

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-15 Christopher Henry, Walter Engert, Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, Darcey McVanel, Kim Huynh

  We discuss the payment habits of Canadians both in the current payment environment and in a hypothetical cashless environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2023-39 Janet Hua Jiang, Peter Norman, Daniela Puzzello, Bruno Sultanum, Randall Wright

  Monetary theory says that money is essential if it helps to achieve better incentive-feasible outcomes. We test this in the laboratory.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, E, E4, E5

• What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin

  We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5

• What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment

  Staff Working Paper 2023-36 Cars Hommes, Julien Pinter, Isabelle Salle

  We conduct a large-scale survey to shed light on what people believe about public finance. An experiment demonstrates that central bank communication can persistently shift views on monetary financing. It further suggests that views on monetary financing impact support for fiscal discipline.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E5, E58, E6, E60, E62, E7, E70, G, G5, G53, H, H3, H31

• Privacy-Preserving Post-Quantum Credentials for Digital Payments

  Staff Working Paper 2023-33 Raza Ali Kazmi, Duc-Phong Le, Cyrus Minwalla

  Digital payments and decentralized systems enable the creation of new financial products and services for users. One core challenge in digital payments is the need to protect users from fraud and abuse while retaining privacy in individual transactions. We propose a pseudonymous credential scheme for use in payment systems to tackle this problem.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21, O, O3, O31

• Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Government Expenditures

  Staff Working Paper 2023-30 Chang Liu, Yinxi Xie

  We study the impact government expenditure has on inflation. We find that changes in government expenditure account for a substantial portion of inflation variations. We also find that inflation and inflation expectations respond negatively to fiscal spending shocks, reaffirming the supply-side channel through which inflation responds to fiscal expansions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E6, E62, E63
• June 8, 2023

  Economic progress report: Are we entering a new era of higher interest rates?

  Remarks Paul Beaudry Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce Victoria, British Columbia

  Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the latest interest rate decision and suggests reasons why longer-term interest rates could remain higher than they were before the pandemic.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Housing, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
• June 8, 2023

  Adjusting to higher interest rates

  Speech summary Paul Beaudry Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce Victoria, British Columbia

  Speaking a day after we raised interest rates, Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry talks about what Governing Council considered in its decision. He also suggests reasons why long-term interest rates could remain higher than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Housing, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector

• What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin

  We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31

• A central bank digital currency for offline payments

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-2 Cyrus Minwalla, John Miedema, Sebastian Hernandez, Alexandra Sutton-Lalani

  Offline functionality is a key consideration for a potential CBDC. We describe the different types of offline functionality based on their duration outside of network connection—either intermittent (for short periods) or extended (for longer periods). We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of each and consider implications for end-user devices, system resilience and universal accessibility.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, E58, O, O3, O31