Central bank research

• September 26, 2016

  Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy

  Lecture Stephen S. Poloz Western Washington University Bellingham, Washington

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses global trade integration and the implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Trade integration

• A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-14 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes

  Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5

• Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility

  Staff Working Paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi

  Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58

• The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates

  Staff Working Paper 2016-28 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32
• June 4, 2016

  Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message

  Lecture Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Economics Association Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how the mix of monetary and fiscal policies in an economy has important implications for debt levels and financial stability over the medium term.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework
• May 6, 2016

  Stress Prevention: Central Banks and Financial Stability

  Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Joint Workshop: Bank of Canada, International Monetary Fund, Centre for International Governance Innovation, and Peterson Institute for International Economics Ottawa, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses central banks and the maintenance of financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy framework, Sectoral balance sheet

• Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries

  Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey

  This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15

• Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete

  Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, C2, C25, D, D2, D21, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58

• What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay

  The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
• February 8, 2016

  Monetary Policy and Financial Stability—Looking for the Right Tools

  Remarks Timothy Lane HEC Montréal Montréal, Quebec

  Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the links between monetary policy and financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy framework, Sectoral balance sheet