Business fluctuations and cycles

• November 12, 2020

  Helping the economy after the COVID‑19 pandemic

  Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario

  The pandemic won’t last forever. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Debt management, Digital currencies and fintech, Expectations, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
• November 12, 2020

  Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Debt management, Digital currencies and fintech, Expectations, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments

• How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?

  Staff Working Paper 2020-47 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See

  Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J6, J64, J65

• Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong

  We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41

• Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models

  Staff Working Paper 2020-38 Barbara Sadaba, Sunčica Vujič, Sofia Maier

  What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, I, I2, J, J2

• Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis

  Staff Working Paper 2020-34 Tobias Blattner, Jonathan Swarbrick

  We present a two-country model featuring risky lending and cross-border interbank market frictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, International financial markets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F3, F32, F36

• Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB

  Staff Working Paper 2020-31 Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi, Sylvain Leduc, Joel Wagner

  The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52

• Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2020-25 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon

  We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, F, F3, F32, F4, F42, G, G1, G15, G18

• Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation

  Staff Working Paper 2020-17 Xing Guo

  This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, G, G3, G31, G32
• May 4, 2020

  Bridge to Recovery: The Bank’s COVID-19 Pandemic Response

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses measures the Bank has taken to address the COVID-19 pandemic and set the stage for recovery.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments