Business fluctuations and cycles

• Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépenses des ménages américains

  Staff Working Paper 2003-13 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde

  Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21, E3, E32

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Military Buildups in a New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework

  Staff Working Paper 2003-12 Alain Paquet, Louis Phaneuf, Nooman Rebei

  The authors study the macroeconomic consequences of large military buildups using a New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) approach that combines nominal rigidities within imperfectly competitive goods and labour markets. They show that the predictions of the NNS framework generally are consistent with the sign, timing, and magnitude of how hours worked, after-tax real wages, and output actually respond to an upsurge in military purchases.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, H, H2

• Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2003-8 Andrew Rennison

  The author evaluates the ability of a variety of output-gap estimators to accurately measure the output gap in a model economy. A small estimated model of the Canadian economy is used to generate artificial data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, E, E3, E32

• Salaire réel, chocs technologiques et fluctuations économiques

  Staff Working Paper 2002-42 Dominique Tremblay

  The author presents empirical evidence that he has obtained from an analysis of the response of different economic variables, including the real wage rate, to a technology shock.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E24, E3, E32

• An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP

  Staff Working Paper 2002-36 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde

  The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. GDP.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E23, E3, E32

• Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2002-30 David Andolfatto, Scott Hendry, Kevin Moran

  Various measures indicate that inflation expectations evolve sluggishly relative to actual inflation. In addition, they often fail conventional tests of unbiasedness.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, E5, E52, E58

• Habit Formation and the Persistence of Monetary Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2002-27 Hafedh Bouakez, Emanuela Cardia, Francisco Ruge-Murcia

  This paper studies the persistent effects of monetary shocks on output. Previous empirical literature documents this persistence, but standard general-equilibrium models with sticky prices fail to generate output responses beyond the duration of nominal contracts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5

• Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data

  Staff Working Paper 2002-18 Kevin Moran, Veronika Dolar

  This paper applies the hybrid dynamic general-equilibrium, vector autoregressive (DGE-VAR) model developed by Ireland (1999) to Canadian time series.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37
• May 21, 2002

  Inflation and the Macroeconomy: Changes from the 1980s to the 1990s

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2002 David Longworth

  Over the last 10 years, the level of inflation has been much lower than in the previous two decades. At the same time, the behaviour of inflation has changed profoundly. By surveying the data and the economic research, the author first examines changes in the variability, growth rates, and behaviour of some of the major macroeconomic variables during the 1980s and 1990s. He then looks at how these changes are linked to a shift in the approach of monetary policy over the period. Lastly, he reviews the economic benefits that these changes have had for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits
• August 17, 2001

  The Changing Effects of Energy-Price Shocks on Economic Activity and Inflation

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2001 Gerald Stuber

  In this article the author examines the effects that major changes in energy prices in recent years have had on inflation and on the pace of economic expansion. These are then compared with the effects of the oil-price shocks that occurred in the 1970s and early 1980s. Changes in the intensity of energy use are examined, as well as developments in Canada's merchandise trade surplus in energy commodities and products. The author also considers the effects that a monetary policy anchored to low and stable inflation could have on price-setting behaviour and thus on the pass-through of higher energy costs to core inflation in Canada and in other industrial countries.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles