Impacts of interest rate hikes on the consumption of households with a mortgage Staff Analytical Note 2024-14 Panagiotis Bouras, Joaquín Saldain, Xing Guo, Thomas Michael Pugh, Maria teNyenhuis We assess how much the recent rate-hike cycle has and will affect mortgage borrowers' consumption through its impacts on mortgage payments. Our analysis provides insights into the effects of changes in monetary policy on the consumption of mortgage borrowers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D13, E, E2, E21, G, G5
June 13, 2024 Reviewing our pandemic actions Speech summary Sharon Kozicki Canadian Association for Business Economics Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about the importance of central bank transparency and accountability. She looks at the exceptional monetary policy measures the Bank of Canada used during the COVID-19 pandemic and analyzes their effectiveness. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credibility, Economic models, Financial stability, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Recent economic and financial developments
June 13, 2024 Exceptional policies for an exceptional time: From quantitative easing to quantitative tightening Remarks Sharon Kozicki Canadian Association of Business Economics Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses the use of exceptional monetary policy tools during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the Bank’s commitment to transparency and accountability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credibility, Economic models, Financial stability, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Recent economic and financial developments
May 9, 2024 Release of the Financial Stability Report Opening statement Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial Stability Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments
Pricing behaviour and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata Staff Analytical Note 2024-6 Olga Bilyk, Mikael Khan, Olena Kostyshyna Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11
Measuring household financial stress in Canada using consumer surveys Staff Analytical Note 2024-5 Nicolas Bédard, Patrick Sabourin We use data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations to understand how households are coping with high inflation and high interest rates. We build a subjective measure of financial stress and find that the level of stress is at a historical high but remains manageable for most households. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Financial stability, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G5, H, H3
March 21, 2024 Getting to a new normal Speech summary Toni Gravelle CFA Society Toronto Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle speaks about how the Bank of Canada will manage its balance sheet once quantitative tightening ends. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Recent economic and financial developments
March 21, 2024 Going back to normal: The Bank of Canada’s balance sheet after quantitative tightening Remarks Toni Gravelle CFA Society Toronto Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle provides an update on quantitative tightening and talks about how the Bank of Canada will manage its balance sheet once normalization ends. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Recent economic and financial developments
Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy Staff Working Paper 2023-60 Agostina Brinatti, Xing Guo We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F16, F2, F22, J, J6, J61
The impact of higher interest rates on mortgage payments Staff Analytical Note 2023-19 Maria teNyenhuis, Adam Su We investigate how the increase in interest rates since early 2022 is affecting mortgage payments. By November 2023, less than half of mortgage holders had faced higher payments. Many borrowers will see a sizable increase in payments at renewal, although income growth could help mitigate the impact. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21