Assessing the Impact of Demographic Composition on Productivity Staff Discussion Paper 2025-3 Justin-Damien Guénette, Lin Shao We examine how demographic factors influence potential output, focusing on how the age distribution of the working-age population and the old-age dependency ratio affect aggregate productivity. Following Feyrer (2007), we emphasize that the contribution to aggregate productivity varies by age group, with middle-aged individuals (aged 40 to 49) being the most productive. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J1, J11, O, O4, O47, O5, O51
February 21, 2025 Trade conflict: What can the Bank of Canada do? Speech summary Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how a trade conflict would affect the Canadian economy and monetary policy. He also outlines what the Bank of Canada is focusing on as it renews its monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
February 21, 2025 Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy Remarks Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the potential impact of a trade conflict with the United States. He also launches the review of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
The Distributional Origins of the Canada-US GDP and Labour Productivity Gaps Staff Working Paper 2024-49 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Joel Rodrigue We find the top 10% of the income distribution accounts for three-quarters of the gap in GDP per adult between Canada and the United States. The large gaps in income for high-income earners help distinguish between alternative explanations of this persistent gap in GDP per adult. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J6, J61, N, N1, N12, O, O4, O47, O5, O51
Gender Gaps in Time Use and Entrepreneurship Staff Working Paper 2024-43 Pedro Bento, Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail The prevalence of entrepreneurs, particularly low-productivity non-employers, declines as economies develop. This decline is more pronounced for women. Relative to men, women are more likely to be entrepreneurs in poor economies but less likely in rich economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J2, L, L2, O, O1
September 20, 2024 Artificial intelligence, the economy and central banking Remarks Tiff Macklem National Bureau of Economic Research, Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference Toronto, Ontario Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how artificial intelligence could impact the economy, and outlines some of the implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial stability, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Productivity
August 27, 2024 How high productivity helps fight inflation Higher productivity helps keep prices down and wages up. It gives workers more money to spend and increases the value they get when they spend it. And it allows businesses to weather cost increases without having to raise prices. All together, these factors drive economic growth. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Productivity
June 24, 2024 Workers, jobs, growth and inflation—Today and tomorrow Remarks Tiff Macklem Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba Governor Tiff Macklem explains why Canada’s labour market has had a fairly smooth adjustment to slowing economic growth. He also discusses Canada’s labour market advantages and the challenge of improving productivity growth and investment. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Monetary policy, Productivity
June 24, 2024 Making the labour market work for everyone Speech summary Tiff Macklem Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba Governor Tiff Macklem talks about how the labour market has adjusted to higher interest rates and slower economic growth. He also discusses how a strong, inclusive labour market is key to growth in the long run. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Monetary policy, Productivity
Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach Staff Analytical Note 2024-12 Dany Brouillette, Tessa Devakos, Raven Wheesk We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Climate change, Digitalization, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, J, J1, J11, O, O3, O33, Q, Q5, Q54