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We examine how demographic factors influence potential output, focusing on how the age distribution of the working-age population and the old-age dependency ratio affect aggregate productivity. Following Feyrer (2007), we emphasize that the contribution to aggregate productivity varies by age group, with middle-aged individuals (aged 40 to 49) being the most productive.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how a trade conflict would affect the Canadian economy and monetary policy. He also outlines what the Bank of Canada is focusing on as it renews its monetary policy framework.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the potential impact of a trade conflict with the United States. He also launches the review of the Bank’s monetary policy framework.

We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.

This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2024 Monetary Policy Report.

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers explains how higher productivity can protect the economy from future bouts of inflation and why fixing Canada's productivity problem should be a priority for all Canadians.

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about some of the reasons for Canada’s poor productivity track record, and what we can do to turn the tide.

We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.

Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses the latest interest rate decision along with how immigration helps Canada’s economy and how it impacts inflation.

Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady at 5%, Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses immigration, inflation and the role that newcomers play in helping our economy grow.