The Mutable Geography of Firms’ International Trade Staff Working Paper 2025-11 Lu Han Exporters frequently change their market destinations. This paper introduces a new approach to identifying the drivers of these decisions over time. Analysis of customs data from China and the UK shows most changes are driven by demand rather than supply-related shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, L, L1, L11
March 20, 2025 Navigating tariff uncertainty Remarks Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the US trade conflict and uncertainty is hurting business and consumer confidence. He also outlines what the Bank is doing to ensure the trade conflict doesn’t cause widespread or persistent inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
March 20, 2025 Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the Canadian economy Speech summary Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how uncertainty about the trade war with the United States has shaken businesses and consumer confidence. He also reiterates that the Bank of Canada must ensure that high prices from tariffs do not lead to ongoing inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
Assessing the Impact of Demographic Composition on Productivity Staff Discussion Paper 2025-3 Justin-Damien Guénette, Lin Shao We examine how demographic factors influence potential output, focusing on how the age distribution of the working-age population and the old-age dependency ratio affect aggregate productivity. Following Feyrer (2007), we emphasize that the contribution to aggregate productivity varies by age group, with middle-aged individuals (aged 40 to 49) being the most productive. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J1, J11, O, O4, O47, O5, O51
February 21, 2025 Trade conflict: What can the Bank of Canada do? Speech summary Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how a trade conflict would affect the Canadian economy and monetary policy. He also outlines what the Bank of Canada is focusing on as it renews its monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
February 21, 2025 Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy Remarks Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the potential impact of a trade conflict with the United States. He also launches the review of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
February 6, 2025 Structural change, supply shocks and hard choices Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Bank for International Settlements Mexico City, Mexico In panel remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem highlights the challenges ahead and discusses the role of monetary policy in a world with more structural change and supply shocks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments
The International Exposure of the Canadian Banking System Staff Working Paper 2025-1 Christian Friedrich, Hanno Friedrich, Nick Lawrence, Javier Cortes Orihuela, Phoebe Tian In 2023, the share of Canadian banks’ foreign assets and liabilities amounted to around 50%. While Canadian banks engage domestically mostly with households and non-financial corporations, their most common counterparties abroad are non-bank financial institutions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F23, F3, F31, F32, G, G2, G21, G23, G3
December 16, 2024 Lessons for the future Speech summary Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia In his year-end remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem discusses what the Bank of Canada learned from the pandemic experience and outlines how the Bank is preparing for a more uncertain future. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework
December 16, 2024 Delivering price stability: Learning from the past, preparing for the future Remarks Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Governor Tiff Macklem reflects on the lessons learned from the pandemic and its aftermath and outlines how the Bank is preparing for the challenges of the future. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework