Demand for Canadian Banknotes from International Travel: Indirect Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic Staff Working Paper 2024-23 Hongyu Xiao This study uses the COVID-19 travel restrictions to estimate foreign demand for Canadian banknotes. It reveals that international visitors accounted for about 10% of all $100 CAD notes in circulation pre-pandemic, with each visitor carrying an average of $165 in hundred-dollar bills. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58, F, F2, F22
Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems Staff Working Paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, C5, C55, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42
May 9, 2024 Release of the Financial Stability Report Opening statement Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial Stability Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments
2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: Cash Use Over 13 Years Staff Discussion Paper 2024-1 Christopher Henry, Doina Rusu, Matthew Shimoda We present results from the 2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey, including updated payment shares based on a three-day shopping diary. We also assess various factors associated with long-term trends in cash use. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41
How Far Do Canadians Need to Travel to Access Cash? Staff Discussion Paper 2023-28 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao This paper develops a travel-based metric to measure Canadians’ access to cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. We find that, overall, access to cash remained stable between 2019 and 2022. The total number of ABMs in Canada increased by 3.7% and the total number of branches decreased by 5.2% during that period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, J, J1, J15, R, R5, R51
An Overview of the Indigenous Economy in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2023-25 Alex Chernoff, Calista Cheung Several measures suggest economic outcomes have improved for Indigenous Peoples in recent decades. Yet, institutional settings and gaps in infrastructure and financing continue to hinder their economic progress. Recent efforts have helped address some data gaps, and new institutions are helping Indigenous communities to overcome historic barriers to growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Development economics, Financial services, Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, E02, N, N4, N41, N42, O, O4, O43, P, P4, P48
Three things we learned about the Lynx payment system Staff Analytical Note 2023-14 Nikil Chande, Zhentong Lu, Hiru Rodrigo, Phoebe Tian Canada transitioned to a new wholesale payment system, Lynx, in August 2021. Lynx is based on a real-time settlement model that eliminates credit risk in the system. This model can require more liquidity; however, Lynx’s design allows Canada’s wholesale payments to settle efficiently. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C10, E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28
Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff Discussion Paper 2023-22 Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, John Miedema, Jiamin Dai, Badr Omrane We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Accessibility, Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Digitalization, Financial services JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, E, E4, E42, E5, E50, I, I3, I31, O, O3, O33, O5, O51
Unmet Payment Needs and a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff Discussion Paper 2023-15 Christopher Henry, Walter Engert, Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, Darcey McVanel, Kim Huynh We discuss the payment habits of Canadians both in the current payment environment and in a hypothetical cashless environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54
Crowdfunding and Risk Staff Working Paper 2023-28 David Cimon Crowdfunding may enable unique products to reach the consumer market. I model a crowdfunding technology that publicly screens consumer demand early in the production process. In this model, entrepreneurs like crowdfunding for risky projects where demand is uncertain, but not for large, safe projects or for projects where production costs are uncertain. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial markets, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G24, G3, G32